Fresh Paint
Monday, March 15, 2004
Illinois Senate Race Predictions
As promised, here they are, plus reasons: My turnout prediction is 46 pct total statewide, 64 pct in Chicago and suburbs:

Barack Obama: (44 pct) Will be picking up undecideds and people who are glad for a candidate with substance for a change
Dan Hynes: (22) Pickup people leaving Hull, also some undecideds second guessing
Blair Hull: (15) Dropping -- is the "velcro" candidate -- bad news has been sticking
Maria Pappas: (10) Rising -- seen as a strong woman, which many want, been in dem politics awhile
Gery Chico: (6) Rise a little, seen as a clean but unknown candidate, esp. outside the city
Joyce Washington: (2) Rise -- another longtime Chicago pol
Nancy Skinner: (1) Don't know her -- possibly no one else does either

Jack Ryan: (34 pct) Dropping -- has Hull-like scandals. Seems smarmy, arrogant to me
Andy McKenna: (22) Will pick up a lot because of nice-guy image
Jim Oberweis: (17) Will pick up some because of well-known business name
Steve Rauschenberger: (16) Will pick up a lot because of recent endorsements, though still very unknown
John Borling: (4) No idea who he is, nor does anyone else, so keeping him right there
Chirinjeev Kathuria: (4) Will pick up because of IVI/IPO endorsement, and a few others, plus a few indys
Jonathan Wright: (3) No idea who he is, nor does anyone else
Norm Hill: (0) No idea who he is, nor does anyone else

So, Eric, is there an awards ceremony? Should I start planning what to wear? oh dear, oh dear....

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